Dawid Janczy – Axia Futures https://axiafutures.com/blog Axia Futures Fri, 09 Feb 2024 09:27:10 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.7 https://axiafutures.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/cropped-affavicon2-1-32x32.png Dawid Janczy – Axia Futures https://axiafutures.com/blog 32 32 When A False Breakout Creates A Selling Opportunity https://axiafutures.com/blog/false-breakout-creating-sell-opportunity/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/false-breakout-creating-sell-opportunity/#respond Wed, 22 Jul 2020 16:45:00 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=6909 More]]>
The understanding of false breakout can help you access opportunities that you would otherwise miss. In this post, we will have a look at the example of that in DAX futures, particularly how this false breakout created a double top and presented sell structure.

Market Context for False Breakout Sell

DAX Futures Candlestick Chart
DAX Futures Market Profile and Candlestick Chart

The false break came on above 13332 levels, once we failed to get up above there – this was then the opportunity started to present itself. You could be already looking for a false break before we reach daily highs the second time, but ultimately this market could have consolidated, it could have drifted slowly higher, or do anything else. Only after the double top formed you’re getting a little bit of a clue and potentially a trade opportunity. Your focus should intensify once the price gets back down to 13299-90 range – this effectively was your sell zone if you are playing this double top as a false breakout. Also when we traded the second time around 13332 (the highs) you’re shown that we’ve put in the open drive down, failed auction to the downside, and then rally with single prints, possibly a P-shape, or even trend like day. All these things could prevent you from getting short earlier. It’s only when the price gets back trough 13290 – into the single prints you can then look for that drop and liquidation of long positioning. Initially down towards 13267 when we could find the target at Initial Balance high.

Whilst we can look back at this and say you should short 13300 and take it all the way down to 12962 on the initial move it seems much more probable scenario to be looking for a break of 13290 with the target at Initial Balance high. We then get a bounce and once you were into initial balance again you could notice very similar order flow dynamics as on the 13305-00 levels with pressure building harder and harder to the downside around 13265. That memory of order flow could give you a clue that there’s potential for a much bigger move.
The first trade in this was more short term and the second trade was only on after the market gets to Initial Balance high for the second time, and presents the same price action that could give you the clue that this had a bigger move in it.

We’re facing a scenario:

Sell based on price action above the key level, taking profit on target, then allowing the price to show us what’s next, and observing if the same pressure builds once again around Initial Balance High.

After seeing the same repeating price action pattern as on the upper levels you could start believing in a larger move. So the clues were all there but only when you got through the 13265 that much larger move was confirmed.

Watch The Pressure Selling Coming After False Breakout

Unpacking The Order Flow Patterns That Followed

We already had one snap off the lows (first snap and bounce on the picture above) and that happened very fast. Bounce back was limited and then after breaking the low of that snap we start getting this pressure building with a heavy, steady type dropping. Price doesn’t show a great deal of bounce but equally not lots of fast pushes down, and this is what we mean by that pressure. The move wasn’t a surge to the downside, you couldn’t feel the move is hugely aggressive, but it never felt it had any easing off. Watching that purely out of chart perspective could even make you think that’s a nice place to buy betting the next rally higher, but when you look at the ladder it never actually shows any willingness to move up.
The beginning of a drop around 13300 is where you could be expecting some kind of buyers to step in, but you’re not getting it, and order flow does not change.

DAX and Eurostoxx Price ladders
DAX and Eurostoxx Price ladders

Larger order appears, but only for a brief moment at 13302.5, suggesting that someone tries to spoof their way into a short position before the move goes. This is a potential chance to get short just above the level. At this point, we still haven’t broken it, but correlating markets could give us more conviction, specifically Eurostoxx being already weak by trading back below yesterday high at 3715. DAX after steadily dropping below 13299 really struggles to get another rotation higher and then snaps down towards 13290 after which, again, we see almost no pullback. Any pick up in pace towards level where the snap occured could be a warning sign, but instead, we see the market actually slow down with no one trying to buy – this should keep you in. Then another snap occurs down to 13280 – this is where people start to panic and that accelerates that move down giving you even more reasons to use Initial Balance high as your target which eventually gets hit.

Learn How To Trade False Breakout Order Flow

What really played a role in this trade was recognizing where the selling was coming in and noticing the clues in the activity – that selling although not aggressive at first was a consistent and steady move that could accelerate below key market level.

If you want to develop your skills of trading price ladder and see more examples of how to read Depth of Market to build your edge make sure to join our newsletter and check out our Price Ladder and Order Flow Strategies Course.

To learn how to build your own market approach and inventory of day trading patterns, check out our Trader Training courses. Our flagship 8 Week Career Programme can be attended live on our London Trading Floor or virtually from home as an online trading course. These are the most comprehensive training programmes in the proprietary​ ​futures​ ​trading industry and are based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development​.

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/false-breakout-creating-sell-opportunity/feed/ 0
2 Market Profile Day Types – Liquidation vs Trend https://axiafutures.com/blog/2-market-profile-day-types-liquidation-trend/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/2-market-profile-day-types-liquidation-trend/#respond Wed, 15 Jul 2020 08:44:54 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=6769 More]]> If you trade market profile day types, you’ve probably asked yourself “Is today a liquidation day or a trend day?” In this blog post, we are going to look a little closer at how to approach this question. The example we’re going to use is Eurostoxx and we’d like to try to go through how your decision is going to shift as the market develops trough the day. To start a thought process like this it’s good to sum up your knowledge with questions like:

  • What do you know about liquidation days?
  • What do you know about trend days?
  • How do they typically develop?

That is the base you need to break down the characteristics of these moves, which will then enable you to spot them as they are happening and give you a chance to act accordingly. 

Trend Day vs Liquidation Day

Firstly, let’s point out that the trend day is a very tricky thing to predict beforehand. Ultimately for a trend type day to happen you need to have larger time frame participants to come into the market. They will continue to buy or sell throughout all day and they are the ones that keep the move going. That’s really hard to predict – you practically can’t foresee that any bank, hedge fund, mutual fund, or any other large frame participant will start buying (or selling) exactly today. So it’s not about predicting the trend – it’s about identifying it as soon as possible once it starts. To do that you need to know in advance the specific characteristics which you’re going to look for. 

There are however situations when you can start to think that the trend is likely to happen – particularly as you get out of an area where the market, after some directional move, has been in consolidation and you’re continuing in the same direction.

Eurostoxx 50 Candlestick Chart 27 May
Eurostoxx 50 candlestick chart

The example of that you can see on a chart above which shows European equities on a move up at the end of May. We then get a day of consolidation, after which price breaks higher on the 27th of May and continues the move in trend type fashion. This is similar to what you can notice on a lower time frame chart, where you see a move up followed by consolidation followed by continuation. Having said that, it’s not very often when we get quite a clear market structure like that, therefore we want to pay attention to the hallmarks trend type day has once it starts. 

Liquidation move on the other hand is a little bit more straightforward because you are able to point out where you can expect it to happen. In advance, you’re starting to think about these possibilities and the reasons for liquidation? You won’t get liquidation if you haven’t had a phase of positioning. The phase of positioning is where the market moved to a new area people are trying to buy (or sell) to continue the move – without any significant effect. You, therefore, have positions that are trapped and with the turning will go running for the exit, triggering potential liquidation.

Key Characteristics Of Trend And Liquidation Day

The next thing is once the day starts is to ask yourself if you have any of the characteristics listed below:

Before it starts

  1. Small Initial Balance 

As soon as you got that you should straight away think that you have a potential_for a trend or liquidation type day. The next stage of the move is gonna tell you which of the two is more likely. 

The first part of the move

  1. Fast early move trough clear level ~ liquidation 

On a fast move out of Initial Balance, especially when the market breaks any clear level – meaning, a distinct point on hourly or 15 minutes chart where you could quite easily say market participants will be forced to act, because of stops placed there – that’s an indication of a liquidation type day. You should then be expecting the adequate order flow after that. 

  1. Absorption phases (tight range) then new push ~ trend

In the beginning, you won’t necessarily see a huge early move, but it will still have a very clear push in one direction and then it will (rather than just drop/spike very fast and stall) have phases whereas it stalls and the market will just absorb any retracement back. This will create a tight range, like a small flag on a 1 minute or 5 minutes chart, and then you’ll get another push in the same direction. This will be quite quick, however, you won’t see it continue on and on, rather you can notice selling pressure moving steadily lower and lower (or buying pressure moving higher). Market participants progressively moving into the same direction – rather than just chasing the price is a strong indication of trend type move. Each time they sell once they can’t sell anymore at these prices – they will push price further and engage with the next buyers (or sellers) they’ll find. 

After recognizing the first part of the move and connecting it with liquidation or trend you take a look at:

Rotations

What happens on any movement back? Are we getting back trough the recent support/resistance? Having broken support do we stay below it? 

  1. Rotation back trough previous short term highs/lows ~liquidation 

If you see the price going through short term levels it is another indication you’re faced with liquidation type move, and you’re going to see balancing out of the bottom(or top) of the day. 

  1. Support becomes resistance short term ~ trend 

If support being broken is then used by the sellers to position short below it, you have an indication of trend type move. 

Low Volume Nodes

  1. Low Volume Nodes getting filled in ~ liquidation

If the low volume patches that initially appeared on a ladder with the directional move are getting filled with market rotating back – you’re getting one more sign it’s a liquidation move, meaning there’s no more new selling coming down at those areas. 

  1. Low Volume Nodes used as a support ~ trend

Approaching Low Volume patches market participants get active and move price away in the direction of the first part of the move. You can see an example of that in the EUR/USD contract continuation trade we talked about in the previous post. 

Examples of Liquidation And Trend Days

In order to get a full understanding of how to use that knowledge in practice, please have a look a the video, where Richard from Axia Trading Floor explains the approach at different stages of the day developing in the Eurostoxx market.

Learn To Trade Market Profile Day Types

To learn to trade market profile day types and develop your career as an elite trader then check out our range of Trader ​Training courses. Our flagship 8 Week Career Programme can be attended live on our London Trading Floor or virtually from home as an online trading course. These are the most comprehensive training programmes in the proprietary​ ​futures​ ​trading industry and are based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development​.

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/2-market-profile-day-types-liquidation-trend/feed/ 0
Eurostoxx Initial Balance High – Live Trading https://axiafutures.com/blog/eurostoxx-initial-balance-high-live-trading/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/eurostoxx-initial-balance-high-live-trading/#respond Wed, 08 Jul 2020 07:36:30 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=6663 More]]> In this blog post, we will be looking at Elite Axia Trader executing a trade idea around Initial Balance High in the Eurostoxx on March 10th in the mids of big volatility days after coronavirus fears. We’re going to take a glimpse of multiple tools that were used such as market profile, daily chart pattern, intraday price action, and order-flow. Let’s first have a look at the market contextual landscape.

Eurostoxx Market Profile Landscape

Eurostoxx Market Context
Eurostoxx Daily Candlestick + Market Profile Charts

In the greater scheme of things, looking at a daily candlestick chart, we are already seeing coronavirus conditions with the market being exceedingly bearish. After forming a daily flag in the previous week and breaking it lower on Friday, we then open next week with a big gap down.  On Monday market closed again negative, and the trade we are taking a look at was executed the next day. 
The chart on the right shows the Market Profile session breakdown with: 

  • Wk Open – from the open on Sunday night to start of the cash session
  • Y/d cash – Monday pit session
  • O/n – from Monday pit session close to Tuesday pit session open.
  • Today cash – session on Tuesday 10th of March which we are discussing

What we take from it is that on week open after market gaped down it stayed below the gap (Wk Open), but on a cash session (Y/d cash) it bounced off from lows closing within a balance.  Then on overnight (O/n) session sellers managed to break the lows of cash session – showing once more that they want to push lower and that lows are still vulnerable. However, with coming closer to Tuesday cash open we moved higher and higher all the way above the pit session Value Area. 

Eurostoxx 50 Market Profile Cash session
Eurostoxx Market Profile Cash Sessions

Let’s now take a look at the Cash session Market profiles above. We got Monday on the left, is the pretty balanced day, although because of the weekend gap the sentiment outlook is still bearish. On the right, we have a pit session of Tuesday opening above previous day Value. With a bigger trend aiming down and the gap above, the market is in a decision-making point in which we will either see sellers coming once again and pushing market lower, or buyers attempt to move price into the gap area.

Ideas for a trade: 

  • Trend continuation – Getting below yesterday’s POC and VPOC levels and holding below them would be the first signal of sellers getting control and us wanting to position short targeting yesterday’s lows. 
  • Test the gap above – Rejection of these levels could indicate that there’s potential for a move higher. 

Initial Balance High – Closer Look

Eurostoxx 50 1 Minute Chart
Eurostoxx 1 Minute Chart

On the 1 minute chart above you can see with the first candle at 7:00 that the market started drifting lower forming Initial Balance(IB) between 3043 and 2990 levels. After cash opens the market pushed below IB and then quickly rejected that move with impulse higher above Initial Balance low. Then, after a few minutes, buyers move higher all the way up to IB high, eventually breaking it. At this point, we can already see that there are buyers present and willing to pay higher and higher prices. When sellers push the market back below IB high the move cannot be sustained and goes again above 3043 levels. This is the stage that presents some areas in which Axia Elite Trader starts to looking for an entry for a continuation higher,  targeting the break of the previous day high. In the next part, we’ll also dig into Order Flow in that area. 

How To Execute A Trade Idea?

Information we got from analysis helped to build an idea, but how to best access that idea?
First, we go again by checking the boxes to make sure that everything is in place: 

  • The market failed to position short below yesterday Volume Point Of Control 
  • Price getting above today IB high, 
  • After testing back the Initial Balance area it got bought up again straight above IB high

After having that our focus turns to Price Ladder as we want to find the best entry point.

Watch The Live Execution On The Price Ladder

Unpacking The Order Flow That Followed

From the price ladder point of view, we can see that when the market approaches 3055 someone is reloading offers each time buyers trade into it and then pushes prices back again to 3052 when previously buyers hold. So we notice this two-way trading at those levels, but as soon as 3052 is turning offer – market drops. There’s very little selling, and almost no auctioning at these prices allowing the prices to fall to 3047-46 area – suggesting that bids just backed off pulling liquidity. That’s what our trader was looking for, he perceives this behavior as a sign of a strong buyer who finding the seller around 3055 now wants to get the best prices possible. Now auctioning develops around 3045-48 prices – this is where Elite Trader gets his entry filling his first and second 50 lots order. What he doesn’t want to see now is the market getting back with conviction to 3042 levels where the IB high is, and below that. When we get to 3044 however, there’s very little selling into that price, and 45 are getting lifted quite fast. Seeing that he increases his size by another 50 lots. Even though the price goes offer in 3045 again there isn’t any acceleration in the selling and again no one sells 3044. What’s hard about this trade is that it seems that the buyers are weak, but as soon as we stay above 44 and 42 levels trade idea is still valid. After a few moments, there’s a pick up in pace and more size trading up into 3050 and then taking 550 lots on the level above pushing prices higher to 3055 where buyers struggled last time. We auction there for a while but you can still see buyers initiative especially after 1000+ lots bid shows up first at 3054 and then moving on to 3056 driving market even higher, for the eventual break of the highs. 

Key Takeaways

  • Build your idea from the bigger picture setup
    That helps you to prepare expectations of how the trade could play out, making you vitally sensitive to specific kinds of behaviors you want to see.
  • Price ladder for confirmation 
    Seeing the order flow playing out your way and getting validation of the presence of appropriate participants you can then position alongside.

Hopefully, this breakdown will help you to become a better trader and gain some more insight into how to build trade ideas, execute on them, and manage your position once you’re in.  To engineer your process make sure to check the Axia Career Trading Programme – it is designed to do help you construct a truly professional approach for futures trading. 

Begin Your Trading Career

If you’d like to learn to trade futures and develop your career as an elite trader then start building your skills with one of our Trader ​Training courses. Our flagship 8 Week Career Programme is the most immersive experience available and can be attended live on our London Trading Floor or virutally from anywhere in the world as an online trading couse. It is the most comprehensive futures training programme in the world of proprietary​ ​futures​ ​trading and is based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development​ with top performing traders.

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/eurostoxx-initial-balance-high-live-trading/feed/ 0
Absorption Order Flow & Breakout in Eurostoxx 50 https://axiafutures.com/blog/absorption-order-flow-eurostoxx/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/absorption-order-flow-eurostoxx/#respond Tue, 30 Jun 2020 11:13:11 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=6563 More]]> In this blog post, we are going to take a look at how to trade an absorption order flow pattern that preceded a move in the Eurostoxx futures shortly before the cash close. 

Market Context For Absorption Order Flow

Euro stoxx 50 Futures candlestick chart
Euro stoxx 50 Futures candlestick chart

As you can see in the chart above, the market while progressing higher struggled to take the 2693 highs for some time. To give this a little context, we’ve seen pretty much open drive down on the Europe session. That first early drop prevented the price from coming anywhere above the 2700 level. Even with a quick look at the ladder, you can see the difference in traded volume, all levels close and above 2700 have very little volume traded whereas prices below 2693 have on average +10 000 lots. 

Euro stoxx price ladder

Watch The Absorption Order Flow Pattern Replay

Unpacking The Order Flow Patterns That Followed

After breaking 2694 we can see a strong impulse to the upside on the back of already trending up market. The thousand lots laying on 2700 is an additional reference point to look at – the ability to take it with conviction and speed could be yet another sign of the buyers strength. When the market gets trough it, you get what you would want to see. We do have some time to get filled around the 2700 level, and you can observe two-way trading around this area. 

If you play for continuation, always ask yourself what would your risk be?
The sign for you that buyers lose their power would be around 2695 levels where there’s a patch of low volume – a place where you could notice strong bullish initiative before. Coming down below there should be a clear sign that buyers back off. 

However, each time sellers push the price below – to 2698-99 area – buyers immediately lift the offers up. This two-way trading absorption often builds another block for the price to move higher, as the people who sell around these levels will probably retreat as soon as the price gets even closer to the highs. To build up your conviction, you can also have a look at the correlating market E-Mini S&P 500 that at that point was pushing higher as well. The time spent there leaves you with a decision if you want to get in with all size at the “battle zone” area or if you want to hold your initial position and then add with the next push above 2702. 

Throughout the move slowly progressing higher pay attention to where price rotates back to. In this example we see that after initiative moving higher the absorption levels get higher along with it, meaning that when buyers move trough 2701-02 sellers are not able to progress below that prices. Watching all these little clues pays off here as it enables you to hold to your position and manage big size with more patience. 

Your targets are the levels close to the opening price, where there’s a chance that sellers could show up again, and then potentially high of the overnight range. 

 Euro stoxx  price ladder approaching the opening price

Watching the rotations you’ll notice that coming closer to the highs buyers now absorb 2710, and with low volume at 2708 and big order 2706, you have another reference points to watch if you want to hold on to this position. If 2710 will go offer and starts trading price below that could trigger some change in price action and short term selling. The original position is still fine, especially if we don’t see initiative change with large volumes selling into 06. We do eventually see a little dip to 06 but after that, it gets picked up, and with no more sellers at 2710 it’s breaking the highs with conviction and giving you a way out around 2720 area. 

How To Read Depth of Market with Order Flow Trading

What really played a role in this trade was recognizing where the selling was coming in and noticing the clues in the activity – that selling could not hold on and steadily started to back off with buyers hitting higher and higher prices.

If you want to develop your skills of trading price ladder and see more examples of how to read Depth of Market to build your edge make sure to join our newsletter and check out our Price Ladder and Order Flow Strategies Course.

Learn To Trade Order Flow & More

To learn to trade order flow and develop your career as an elite trader then check out our range of Trader ​Training courses. Our flagship 8 Week Career Programme can be attended live on our London Trading Floor or virutally from home as an online trading couse. It is the most comprehensive training programme in the proprietary​ ​futures​ ​trading industry and is based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development​.

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/absorption-order-flow-eurostoxx/feed/ 0
How To Trade Correlating Markets https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-correlating-markets/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-correlating-markets/#respond Wed, 24 Jun 2020 10:46:07 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=6433 More]]>

In this video, Richard points out how to read the order flow at a key point in two correlating markets, specifically Bund and Eurostoxx futures. 

What is the ‘key point’? It’s the point in the market where based on previous insights you are expecting something to happen. There are misconceptions about observing order flow, some people are focusing on every up tick and every downtick that presents itself. This can be useful if your main edge is scalping and mostly focusing on exploiting very short time frame price ladder trades. However, what’s really important is to understand how to match what is happening on the ladder to what you’re looking for and then how to use that information when it doesn’t work out your way. 

The example we to use here is a Bund and Eurostoxx interplay from Monday the 1st of June. We take a look at the context of these markets and at two different patterns of order flow that emerged and gave an indication on how to trade the expected move and how to use it to trade a counter move in the secondary market.

Order Flow Must Match The Trade Type

Whenever you develop a new trading idea or work on a new strategy usually you are going to be using many tools to do that. Remember that order flow should fit that strategy. This could be your final check in the box of conviction on a trade. Without seeing matching price action to what you previously observed your confidence should be significantly impacted. Only when you are recognizing what is happening and matching that with your expectation of what should happen you can really apply bigger size in the market. 

Order flow is giving you the key information – never dismiss it, as it indicates what size you could apply and even if you should take the trade at all. Often it happens that when we take a loss on a trade we quickly forget about it and move on without asking any questions and taking any information from it. Always ask yourself: what’s that telling me? Where there any clues indicating that this could not work out this time?

SIZE = SETUP + ORDER FLOW


Knowing when to trade big size in the market is one of the most important differentiating skills of Elite Traders. They know that the size applied to trade is a function of SET UP and ORDER FLOW. The more they align the more size should be put on a trade. If you have a setup and not fitting order flow you can still take it, however, you should be very careful with putting too much size on it. Including the information that Depth Of Market gives you in your observations will help you to exploit opportunities in the future. 

Just think about it, price action gives you the clearest and most raw information about market participants, not seeing orders acting the way you expect them to is telling you something about other people willingness to act there. Therefore, if the people are not willing to engage there potentially you can use that information to actually execute in the other direction. This type of observation can then develop a new trade idea. 

Constant monitoring of EXPECTATION vs REALITY enables you to build your own pattern inventory. Asking yourself questions like: what did I think would happen? what “should” have happened there compare to what did happen? will really change your understanding of participants’ positioning and what they believe about the market. 

Market Profile Context

Bund Initial Balance break
Bund Initial Balance break 

Firstly, we will have a look at the Bund Initial balance break. Context wise on the Market Profile you can see a strong open drive down that breaks previous day value area, then trades back to the bottom of value but not higher, after that approaching the cash open we get the breakdown. This is a strategy taught in our market profile trading course but here we will also talk more about why a pick up in pace is what favorable price action should look like in these types of trades.

Eurostoxx Initial Balance
EuroStoxx no Initial Balance break 


Secondly, looking at the Eurostoxx at the same point in time we can observe it opening above the previous day’s value area with a relatively strong initial balance to the upside. At the cash open, we are very close to the top of it. What’s really important is that these prices are the highest we have seen since early March. Additionally, Eurostoxx broke the high of 3096 something that participants looked for. The technical landscape, therefore, is very bullish, at this key point we should see strong buying as we are moving to the open space toward the upside. However, the buyers’ strength is not showing up, and this is very important information.  

Eurostoxx and Bund Price ladder
Eurostoxx and Bund price ladders 1 minute into cash session

So looking at the ladder you can see Eurostoxx Initial Balance high is 3106 level and for Bund Initial Balance low is 172.04. For a start, the markets are pretty steady, not much aggression is yet there, but what we are looking for is the price action to speed up at the break of 172.04. It will mean that there’s an urgency to sell there and that the buyers step out of the way. Approaching the level we see the volume to pick up – 400+ lots traded into the bid, goes straight on the offer, and trades the next price immediately with very little buying coming into the offer, which then leads to snap down trough the IB low. This is what we wanted to see there’s an initiative here and as long as we stay below .04 this move has the potential to go. 

At this time Eurostoxx should be going higher – there’s a technical set up and signal from the Bund breaking IB with pace. While approaching 3105 level which has more than 600 lots sitting on it, which is not a lot for this market, the buyers cannot take it down. As soon as we trade into it, offers keep reappearing and pushing the market lower. Each time Bund trades into the lower prices more offer orders appear on the Eurostoxx – that’s the big warning you get from the price ladder while maybe trying to execute the long position. Moreover, when Stoxx backs off quite quickly you don’t see any buying initiative in the Bund. 

This is the point in which you still can feel good holding the short position in the German Bond as the initiative is still on the sellers’ side – low volume traded indicates that the buyers are stepping out of the way. On the other hand, executing on the negatively correlated market is not advisable as the order flow there does not match what you wanted to see and there’s a visible buyers weakness there.

How To Trade Correlated Markets?

Chart of Bund and Eurostoxx
Comparing the Bund and Eurostoxx chart

Looking back at what happened, you can observe that while Bund sold off after breaking the Initial Balance low, Eurostoxx not only didn’t break the high of Initial balance but also went down all the way to 3087. The equity index is clearly very weak. How do you exploit that weakness? Perhaps Bund going lower was one of the factors actually stopping the price to already rollover. So if the Bund starts to show any buying initiative you then get a potential for Stoxx to really pick up speed in what it already wants to do. 

The point for this comes at around 171.80 area. This is the area in which the market is stabilizing for the next phase of the potential move. You have to be sensitive to any change in the order flow. The time we’ve spent there and volume traded already shows you that the buyers are present, as they prevent it from going down. What’s more, you have a clear low volume at 171.84, if we trade trough that price there is a big potential that sellers are going to give up.

Bund and Eurostoxx Price Ladder
Eurostoxx and Bund price ladders at the breaking point

Because there are new sellers entering the Bund you get positions that will be most responsive to the reversal. If you notice that buyers have it easy to trade trough prices above .83 and there’s no aggression on the sellers’ side this then can be an additional push for selling off in Eurostoxx. The order flow pace which we trade trough the 171.84 is very similar to the one on the way down when we first traded below 172.04 – fast snap, almost no pullback, and clear initiative change. Additionally, all the people that sell below .84 are now trapped. You can use that to this time not only to buy Bund but also to sell Stoxx, as it already showed the weakness before. Now, as long as you stay above 171.84 and below 3087 in Eurostoxx you can feel reasonably calm and let that markets play out. 

Learn How To Trade Order Flow

To learn how to build your own market approach and inventory of day trading patterns, check out our order flow course and a range of other Trader Training courses on offer. Our flagship 8 Week Career Programme can be attended live on our London Trading Floor or virtually from home as an online trading course. These are the most comprehensive training programmes in the proprietary​ ​futures​ ​trading industry and are based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development​.

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-correlating-markets/feed/ 0
How To Trade Trend Type Move https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-trend/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-trend/#respond Tue, 16 Jun 2020 15:41:05 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=6218 More]]> In this video, Richard breaks down the breakout to the upside in the EUR/USD contract. This is a trade he went through with the trainees doing the trading career course.

When you’re faced with trending move to the upside you can find yourself asking a question: How do I get on this move? You need to plan your entry point.

Watching price ladder you could see a strong push up trough 1.09950 with market holding above that price, and leaving behind a very clear and easy to recognise area of low volume. Where other prices have around or more then a 200 traded lots per price, this area only have max 80 lots traded, with as little as 15 lots traded on a single price. This is the area you need to put your focus on. Before price gets there however, it is important to have an expectation of what should happen. Then as soon as you’re seeing what you wanted to see to execute on it. 

How to trade order flow

Ahead of price getting to our area of focus you’re looking for any reference points on a ladder. Market halts at 1.10000 which is high of yesterday and you see absorption there with more then 200 lots traded on that single price. When markets gets trough it quickly drifts down to low volume area. 

Now to get a passive entry above that area you want to see more buying there, market should hold at that level. Even with fast blip lower your stop is below low volume area. Ask yourself if you see any significant selling coming in?  If not, your conviction could get even bigger when after market attempted to sell below 1.09955 it gets bid up again. After recognising that buying comes in and bids higher and higher – this is the chance to add to this trade. After eventually lifting 1.10000 where we saw initial absorption your aim is to hold this position.

On a passive entry and trending type day you should be targeting new high. Your risk is now staying above the low of that retracement move which is 1.09930.
Focus on the order flow and watch if buying is still coming in – how consistently are offers lift up? Getting more context from the chart you can see that key level at 1.10150 break of which could offer nice stop type move. After breaking that level you’re expecting very fast exhaustion – this is a chance to get out, at least of some of the position. The exit often depends on our personal targets for a trade. Are you looking for larger movement, in which case the 1.10150 is now the new support for, or are you looking for simply breaking that level causing stop type move, getting you the way out? 
The entry was the point to build up size to really maximize potential of that move and consolidation above key level gives you time to get out of the position.
This is trade which was planed – you have expectation of what you want to see, and you execute after you see it. Always keep in mind your target, which in this case should be at least break of the high. 

Learn to trade order flow and get the most of this kind of moves with our price ladder course. It will help you to get a better understanding of what to look at and how to exploit market behaviour day trading. You can find it at: https://axiafutures.com/trader-training/

To learn more about how to day trade and develop your career as a futures trader within a professional environment then check out the Axia Futures 8 Week Intensive Trading Course and our other more specialised Trader ​Training programmes. It is the most comprehensive training programme in the proprietary​ ​futures​ ​trading industry and is based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development on our trading floor.

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-trend/feed/ 0