Search Results for “feed” – Axia Futures https://axiafutures.com/blog Axia Futures Fri, 09 Feb 2024 09:36:59 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.7 https://axiafutures.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/cropped-affavicon2-1-32x32.png Search Results for “feed” – Axia Futures https://axiafutures.com/blog 32 32 How To Build Exit Trading Strategy https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-build-exit-trading-strategy/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-build-exit-trading-strategy/#respond Fri, 16 Sep 2022 11:00:30 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=13382 More]]>

How To Build Exit Trading Strategy Introduction

In this blog post, we will focus on how to build a robust exit trading strategy. One of the common pitfalls of trading is that we tend to overweight our momentary feelings over rational reasoning. Our ability to reason diminishes when we have to face an open trade, it is at that time we are prone to make irrational decisions. If we are aware of this pitfall, we must ask ourselves what can we do to prevent our emotions interfere with our reasoning process. The answer is fairly simple but not easy. We need a detailed, intimate understanding of our plan prior to opening the trade. Before we enter a trade, it should be clear to us what we want to see and what we don’t want to see at critical junctures of the trade. There are more risk management techniques that should help your trading and if you want to improve in that aspect, don’t forget to check our previous post Prop Trading Risk Management Tips.

How To Manage Your Exits

As we have stated in the introduction, it all comes down to two questions:

  • what do you want to see?
  • what you don’t want to see (invalidation criteria)?

If you don’t have these, you don’t have a trade. Full stop. Entering just because you have an entry point is not sufficient. You need to have a strong reason for the overall trade, not just the entry. Having the access point, stop and target is a good start. Even if you trade for a runner, you should have a target in mind. Why? Because it narrows down your focus to places of resistance. If the market gets there, it should not surprise you what to do next. `

Speaking from personal experience, it is good that you understand yourself as well. In general, how well your brain operates under time pressure? Because essentially that is what trading is about. The market gets from point A to point B, now you need to evaluate. You can’t stop the time and deal with the situation, new prices feeding the tape constantly putting you under time pressure. Some people are better than others under time pressure, so you need to be honest with yourself. Ask yourself the above question. The less good you are, the more you need to double down on your plan and maybe even a time horizon.

Knowing what you want to see / what you don’t want to (expectations) see and understanding how well you deal with time pressure are three important steps towards a robust exit strategy. The next step is the evaluation of your expectations vs reality in real time. The expectations come down to what are SIGNIFICANT factors that can change your mind. Many times we exit a trade because we “did not like” the tape. Or that “the correlation was breaking”. Ask yourself:

“What are the SIGNIFICANT factors for me to change my mind?”

Incorporate those factors in your general trading prep. Be as specific as possible. Also, name a list of INSIGNIFICANT factors that usually interfere with your decision-making when you are in the trade but are not relevant for your trade.

For example, lets conside the long trade that was initiated by a breakout:

Significant Factors For Reversal
(What You Don’t Want To See)
Insignificant Factors To Stay In The Trade (What Is Ok To See)
At TP1, the market will create a strong rejection/excess candle, with the volatility and volume of 2STD or strong Delta flip -> this will mean that new participants entered the market and I will be trading against new momentum that entered the marketThe trade does not do anything-> be specific: the market will start to trade rangebound within 1TPO -> market found new local value, it is a standard feature of the market
Before the TP1 market starts to compress, build time (4 TPO’s) and create 3×3 structure with skew against my position -> this will put pressure on my asymmetrical skew and create a 50/50 type of tradeAggressive sellers step in but aren’t having any meaningful follow-through within 2TPOs -> there are participants that will trade against you agressively but to reverse the move, they can’t work in isolation. More and more sellers need to get on board with the idea.
Immediately after I access the trade, I want to see the aggressive buyers with sticky bid and LVN’s left behind -> this validates my thesis, that stops are being triggered and new participants enter marketPullbacks that are within 2std of the average rotation are ok -> even deeper pullbacks that are still within the previous range should be considered a healthy auction process for your type of trade
Market moves in a “stack bricks” fashion and keeps building the volume higher and higher, with previous resistances now acting as a support -> selling pressure is not sufficient therefore my trade idea is still valid, there is more buyers on board of my idea then sellers on the other sideI am up already and have now X% of my targeted P&L, but there is not signal to exit the trade other then P&L -> your monkey brain is messing with you, exiting now decreases your expactancy and destroys your ability to survive as a trader
And so on …And so on …

The vaguer you are in your reasoning, the more prone you are to make a decision-making error.

Be as specific as possible. Dig deeper, monitor your thought process in your trades, and write down all vague ideas about why not to be in the trade anymore. Look through your journals.

How To Manage Your Exit In Gold Trade

How To Build Exit Trading Strategy

Now let’s zoom in on the Gold trade example. In the Gold trade, the market broke the vulnerable low and immediately reversed. This excess created a burst of new participants while pressuring the old participants to exit the trade that were short hoping for a breakout lower. This fuels further move up. Time for a breakout move to the other side.

Gold: Step 1 - False Breakout Signal - chart of a gold range that false break to the downside and reversed to the upside
Gold: Step 1 – False Breakout Signal

Now zooming in on the breakout, we are getting to the expectations you are setting for the trade. In this case, you are setting the expectation for a short-lived move, with a moderate target while the sellers that are being stopped out providing you a bit of tailwind. For the move to keep continuing, you need to define what else you want to see beyond the point of first exhaustion move up. What are the significant factors, you want to see in the market?

  • volume building up higher -> be specific
  • LVN keep holding -> be specific
Gold: Step 2: - Breakout From Range - breakout chart from the range
Gold: Step 2: – Breakout From Range

Now looking at your move, you have a stretched move and TP1 was hit. What significant factor you dont want to see? Look below. Stretched move, strong delta flip. Now it is all about holding and building value. This is a first significant factor signalling, that this move might be over.

Gold: Step 3: - Excess Move - market broke, and stopped via excess. Now it is forming a range.
Gold: Step 3: – Excess Move

Now with market building the ledge, not willing to re-enter previous excess zone it becomes more and more obvious, that market is more likely to reverse back. The skew works against you now. These significant factors for what you “don’t want to see” are signs for you to exit the trade.

Gold: Step 4: - Vulnerable Ledge - after excess move, market formed a vulnerable ledge, and broke lower
Gold: Step 4: – Vulnerable Ledge

Remember, it is all about how specific you can be with your trade execution. Any vagueness during the planning process makes it impossible for you to make good decisions when under pressure.

If you want to learn how we perfect our trade management strategies don’t forget to check the free webinar we are running at: https://www.elitetraderworkshop.com.

If you liked this type of content, you might check these videos as well:

If you like our content and would like to improve your game, definitely check one of our courses that teach you all the techniques presented by AXIA traders from a market profilefootprint, or order-flow. If you are someone who likes to trade the news, we have a great central bank course. And if you are really serious about your future trading career, consider taking AXIA’s 6-Week Intensive High-Performance Trading Course.

Thanks for reading and until next time, trade well.

JK

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-build-exit-trading-strategy/feed/ 0
How To Trade Geopolitical Conflicts https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-geopolitical-conflicts/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-geopolitical-conflicts/#respond Wed, 02 Mar 2022 15:52:19 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=10517 More]]>

How To Trade Geopolitical Conflicts Introduction

In this article, we will break down how to trade geopolitical conflicts on the back of the recent conflict in Ukraine. When we are building an understanding of how to trade around geopolitical conflicts, we need to understand which scenarios will have the highest impact on the markets. From the most binary to the fuzziest implications, understanding the variety of possible scenarios is crucial. The binary scenario will have the biggest impact on the market since it is absolutely clear what it implies. The fuzzier the implication of the news gets, the harder it will be for us to trade with size. We also cannot forget the diminishing power of the 24/7 rolling news. It is in these times that we need to be 100% clear on what we want to see and hear. Anything else can have devastating effects on our P&L.

Let’s get some recent examples from the conflict in Ukraine and discuss, how traders can interpret events like this one. If you like this type of article, don’t forget to check our previous articles on news trading: Trading the Fed Rate Decision.

Let’s get started.

Tip 1: Building The Trading Scenarios To Trade Geopolitical Conflict

First, let’s make it clear that any war is a terrible disaster for everyone who is negatively impacted. As traders, we need to identify possible opportunities in the markets and react to the best of our ability. We need to stay in control in these volatile and emotional times and wait for the opportunities we understand the best. This leads to building clear trading scenarios. Mapping the terrain of all possible cause-effect relationships and their implications on the market.

So the first question we need to ask is:

“What is the binary non-emotional effect of the news”?

In case of the Ukraine, it means that there either will be or won’t be an invasion. Anything else is some degree of movement towards one or the other scenario. With any news coming in, it is all about understanding if the particular piece of the news brings the invasion closer, triggers the invasion, or further away from happening of invasion. Understanding the scenarios, their binary and non-binary effect is step number one in trading the geopolitical crisis.

Listen to the video directly from the trading floor directly related to Tip 1:

How Our Traders Are Trading The Russian-Ukraine Conflict

If you want to dig deeper and learn how to build an understanding of what has been priced in and what has not, see the video down below where Richard breaks down the OPEC announcement about Oil production starting with the most expected scenario, the main narrative. He then continues and builds less expected scenarios and their possible implication on the price. What makes the move in the price of Oil to continue or reverse after the announcement? And how you can prepare for that.

Scenario Building For The Geopolitical Conflict

Tip 2: Understand The Products You Are Going To Trade

Although there is no exact guideline such as: “trade these markets in this order”, we can use two general principles.

  • Principle 1: any bigger geopolitical conflict triggers the risk-off sentiment. Therefore with a certain degree of error, we can say equities should offer, Gold should rally.
  • Principle 2: Anything that is happening now, has happened in some shape or form in the past. The future is never exactly the same as the past but it often rhymes. Therefore understanding what has moved in the past on similar types of conflicts will give you clues into the current conflict. Time to revisit the 2014 conflict in Ukraine for a proxy to what markets react the best and in what fashion.

Using these two principles, we now should formulate the strategy:

“which products we will trade and how we are going to trade them”

If you want to expand Tip 2, we have written a piece on how to trade macro events: Top Best Practices To Step Up Your Macro News Trading Game.

Tip 3: Understand The FOMO Element

With a lot of non-binary news constantly coming in these can be really tricky times for less-experienced traders because of the FOMO. You simply don’t want to miss the big moves but priority number one is BE IN CONTROL. More often than not, we see people losing money early in a day not to have the capital to trade in the afternoon when better opportunities crystalized. So unless you know exactly what you want to see and your scenario is in play, sit tight and wait for the best opportunity. Listen to what Isaac has to say directly from the floor.

Avoid FOMO During Geopolitical Conflict

Tip 4: You Don’t Have To Trade

This goes hand in hand with the FOMO-related tip number 3. There will be times when market gaps and it will be hard to trade around those gaps. Why? A lot of opportunities around the positioning will be washed away and new market participants will have to step in. We need to give the market more time to tell us when it wants to move next. This requires patience. Listen to what Richard got to say about this:

How To Trade Gaps During Geopolitical Conflict

Now as you have read all the tips there is one last recommendation. If you have never traded geopolitical conflict before, step back and just be a curious observer of cause-effect dynamics on the markets. Map terrain, screenshot, document, write – do whatever it takes to learn as much as possible from this situation. Build a case study so you navigate yourself as best as you can in the geopolitical conflicts of the future.

Bonus: Trading The Iran-US Geopolitical Conflict

Last but not least, if you are interested, see the bonus of how this Elite Trader trades the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran and read the commentary below to understand the narrative, product selection and strategy this Elite Trader used.

Understanding The Narrative

“At the beginning of 2020, there was a dramatic escalation in tensions between the US and Iran after Trump ordered an airstrike on Jan 3rd that killed top Iranian military commander Soleimani. After this, Iran pledged to take “severe revenge” and markets started getting nervous about the prospect of a military conflict between the two nations.

Oil and Gold surged on geopolitical risks after the US strike while equities and risk-assets sold off. The markets were nervously awaiting Iran’s response although there was hope for a diplomatic solution and an avoidance of Iran’s retaliation.

At around 11 pm London on Tuesday 7th January, various Twitter sources started reporting that Iran started firing missiles at Iraqi bases that house US soldiers. With both US and European cash markets closed, futures were slow to react. However, as more sources started confirming the attack and more specifically when Iran Revolutionary Guard confirmed that they were hitting US forces, markets were on the move. Oil, Gold, and US bonds started rallying sharply while S&P futures started selling off aggressively.

The elite trader started buying oil and gold very aggressively (around 200lots in each), buying T-notes (300+ lots) and selling S&P (200+ lots). Executing with his usual trading style he kept managing the trades in these 4 markets by adding and scaling out as he saw fit. As the news kept getting more and more traction so was the market reaction. The moves from 11 pm to 11.40 pm were quite large across oil, gold, bonds, and S&P and he managed to capitalize big on them.

After the initial reaction to the attacks, the market was fearing the worst (potentially a full-blown war between US and Iran) and thus the very big risk-off move. However, soon it was reported that there were no US casualties, and Iranian Foreign minister Zarif said that IRAN CONCLUDED PROPORTIONATE MEASURES, NOT SEEKING WAR. In addition to this, Trump tweeted saying “All is well! Missiles were launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!”

All the above feeding into markets made participants realize that the situation seemed like it was contained and that the US probably wouldn’t have to retaliate back. This caused the V-shape reversal in all markets with Gold, Oil, and US bonds selling off and Spoo rallying retracing the original move. Our Elite Trader managed to reverse his initial risk-off positions and sold Gold and Oil while buying S&P to add to his PnL. By 3 am most markets had retraced most of the moves.

On the morning of Wednesday 8th of January, after this massively volatile overnight session, the European session was a lot quieter. Equity markets kept drifting higher while safe-haven assets (Bunds/Gold) and Oil kept drifting lower as markets were relieved on the limited response by Iran and the fact that there were no casualties. Trump was scheduled to address the nation at around 4 pm London time and it was clear that this would be the catalyst for the next move.

The market price action was indicating that Trump was probably going to sound harsh on Iran but refrain from announcing further conflict or retaliation after the latest attacks. If that was the case we would expect probably another leg of risk-on (but possibly short-lived as this was now priced in). If on the other hand, he chose to escalate tensions further, then we would expect risk-off to hit the markets again.

Trump started his speech by saying that IRAN APPEARS TO BE STANDING DOWN. This was the first hint that he acknowledged that the Iran attack was limited and that hinted that he would not choose not to retaliate. Our Elite trader instantly sells 90 lots in Oil and then sells 80 lots in Gold and buys 280 S&Ps.

As Trump continued talking he struck a very de-escalating tone by saying that he was seeking a diplomatic solution and peace with Iran. This was the best that the market would hope for and as result risk assets rallied and safe-haven assets and oil sold off to completely un-price any war premium. The elite trader played for a final risk-on move by adding to his positions and scaling his positions out as he started seeing signs of exhaustion in the moves.”

If you liked this type of content, you might check these videos as well:

In case you are interested in finding out more about trader training to learn how to trade and explore other great trading strategies, check out our futures trading course that teaches you exactly that and more. Or if you want to really maximize your ladder execution, check out our price ladder trading course.

Thanks for reading and until next time, trade well.

JK

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-geopolitical-conflicts/feed/ 0
Trading Journey: Pushing Too Early https://axiafutures.com/blog/trading-journey-pushing-too-early/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/trading-journey-pushing-too-early/#respond Thu, 23 Dec 2021 14:00:57 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=9898 More]]> This blog post is part of a trading journey series. For previous chapters, follow the links below:

As the summer of 2021 was ending, I was happy. I have managed to get out of the terrible Gold carnage, my trading become much more consistent, I have solved personal issues in my life that were holding me back and my health was finally back. I was happy, full of energy, and in a good spirit for the months to come. It was a combination of the right circumstances, persistency, luck, and skills that got me through the summer. I remember thinking one summer night coming back from the successful day of trading: “Now the trading career will accelerate and I will make leap progress. The hockey stick P&L will unravel in front of my eyes. Well, I was wrong again. The Autumn came.

It started to roll slowly. Losing day here, losing day there. At first, I have ignored it but I have not yet addressed it deeply. Given the experience with the disastrous Gold trade, I was aware that I must address it in order not to repeat the same mistake. I took some moments to review what was going on. I have clearly identified that the rhythm of the market has changed and I have not adjusted my style. I did some tweaks, highlighted what to focus on, and kept going. But even with the tweaks, I felt that something is still not right. Wild swings of P&L, up and down were hammering my mental state. I kept going. Given the time and effort I have put into the trading so far, I hoped that at this stage of my trading career I would reduce the large P&L swings already. Not eliminated, but reduced. Although we theoretically know that P&L should not be our objective, we are still humans playing the performance game. Regardless of any system or process we build, there is always P&L at the back of our minds. Although I was not repeating the same disastrous mistakes as in the past, my P&L curve was more like a rollercoaster than a path to consistency. My profit and loss curve was the signal that I am clearly doing something inconsistent in my trading. I knew that if I get rid of this inconsistency in my process, the P&L curve should reflect it. I have noticed that the harder I tried, the worse results came back. And that was the problem!

Going through my debriefs there was one re-occurring pattern. I have observed, that I simply pushed my trading way too much, way too early, and way too stubbornly. With the positive summer behind me, I got the feeling that now I have finally “cracked the code” to consistency and now I can push more. I wanted to grab it all. By digging deeper I have noticed that my scaling was way too big and inappropriately managed the second I have entered a trade. Because I have drunk the Kool-Aide of my “monumental rise” (a bit of sarcasm) over the summer, I have felt I can push for more. Don’t get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with pushing more, but when we push, we must push on all fronts and not all fronts might be ready. Was I ready to push on all fronts? No! On trades with high conviction, I put much bigger size, but I was blind to any invalidation price action. I held longer than I should, I have averaged at places where I should get out. I simply was too convinced that I must be right because hey, I am ready to push for more right? Given the size, this had a damaging effect on my mental state and consequently the consistency of my trading.

Looking back, the biggest takeaway was that I pushed for more, way too early at the wrong places. I wanted to move to the next level way too early. My goal was to finally make it big, it was never the consistency. Brutal honesty is critical. Every time we feel it is time to accelerate, we must evaluate if all aspects of our trading are ready for this acceleration. We must be brutally sincere about the direction where we want to get and build processes around it. Trading is the process of slow gradual progress where things happen rather organically when we put in the effort in the right process and we are ready. Any forced action will provide us with instant feedback and tell us if we are truly ready or not. I was not, but gained valuable lessons into the wintertime, where I could test my more sincere goals. But more about that in my future post.


Thanks for reading. Trade well.


JK


]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/trading-journey-pushing-too-early/feed/ 0
Dealing With Trading Drawdowns Using The Right Mindset https://axiafutures.com/blog/dealing-with-trading-drawdowns-using-the-right-mindset/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/dealing-with-trading-drawdowns-using-the-right-mindset/#respond Thu, 11 Nov 2021 08:56:10 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=9731 More]]>

Embracing The Impermanence Of Things And Relaxed Readiness

September was a month defined by my physical deterioration. This stemmed from the overwhelming stress I found myself under in the wake of an immediate drawdown, in pursuit of trying to access Spoo downside which began at the beginning of the month. Even on revisiting my warm-up journal from the first week of September, I can sense the eagerness in my feelings, the desire to do the right thing. I believe expectations were taking a strong grip on my reactions to the events that followed because they were so unconsciously overwhelming when they started to surface to a much more emotional level, I struggled to react from a place of acceptance. The surface level of my questioning took control in that first week of September and I allowed myself to take it out upon self-worth. The immediate term thoughts were ones that instantly hindered my ability to learn from the experience, instantly drawing my attention to the start of August and basically every other month of this year, in which I begin with a noticeable drawdown. Perhaps this was the case because I had not fully come to terms with these experiences, but on reflection, I believe it was a combination of process and outcome momentum running hot. The timing of drawdowns is completely irrelevant, yes you can learn a lot from identifying patterns in the time of such events, but to truly grow from them is to take self-accountability. For whatever reason it may be, I appear to build process and outcome momentum into the end of the trading month, if this is left unchecked for too long it is inevitable that at least one of these variables is going to face some resistance – in some cases both will take a hit.

My inability to go through the entire acceptance cycle of what had just happened, rippled into my physical health, quite literally dumping a month’s worth of emotional and mental capital into a two-day period. All the thoughts that I was tapping into in the wake of this were detrimental to how I addressed the immediate term. As touched upon, the timing of events more often than not hold less weight than we want to admit, more often it is simply a matter of process and outcomes beginning to run hot – simply an ebb and flow which we operate within. I believe my desire for finality and resolution, a perfectionist quality, was largely at play at this moment. Something subconscious within me was craving a definitive ending to this reoccurring pattern, for it to happen again in the manner that it did put my ability to gain closure to the test.

Even now I must be careful not to get stuck back in that place, yes my immediate reaction was far from optimal, but it happened and moreover, I got incredible feedback via the physical reaction that preceded. The very literal experience of turning ill from stress-induced resistance to adversity has never made it clear to me how important it is to approach and resolve experiences from a place of acceptance; at the very least to constantly preach and live by the belief, as it is unreasonable to expect you to demonstrate it perfectly on every occasion.

The seven conditions for achieving flow:

  • Knowing what to do
  • Knowing how to do it
  • Knowing how well you are doing
  • Knowing where to go (navigation is involved)
  • Perceiving significant challenges
  • Perceiving significant skills
  • Being free from distractions

Having a clear objective is important in achieving flow, but we also have to know how to leave it behind when we get down to business.

Image of a trader in front of his trading setup
“There are no negative emotions only negative reactions to them”

The points focusing on our ability to perceive both challenges and skills encapsulate my experience in mid September. There was no accounting for the possibility of challenge in that time, I was also incapable of taking a step back from the initial challenge in order to focus on the most leverageable of my skills – tools which would have helped me address the immediate term with far greater efficiency. Ironically in the aftermath of my emotional reaction transitioning into the physical, there has been a persistent feeling of not only acceptance but gratitude toward what unfolded. Often telling myself that this is the best drawdown I have ever been through, recognizing that this is the best version of myself perhaps ever (knowing how well I am doing). These are things which were quite literally impossible for me to see for such a long time, now that I can direct attention to them I believe my ability to embrace the next challenge I face can be from a much more accepting place – one of believing in letting as by doing so is to trust in my process.

Not too dissimilarly to August, the month of September was one in which adaptive situational trades, at times took too much control of my decision-making. When put under periods of stress look to:

  • Push points of access further away than you think (identify areas that you expect to gain feedback from, build ideas around this)
  • Broaden ideas to a larger timescale (if the idea does not play out today, how might it look tomorrow?)
  • Work harder to do less  (we are constantly making decisions, a position should not be seen as the only way to make one)
  • Remove levels of fabrication and get to the core of an idea (most efficient ideas have a basic principle of understanding when a market may move from x to y)

Believe in principle that something I come across quickly is something I do not understand sufficiently (often closely linked to accessing of a bias).

If the tempo of opportunity is to remain or even increase, I need to be aware that it is likely that their quality has deteriorated also. It is in my ability to fall back on my selection that will allow me to filter through these opportunities, ie moving to a more broad segregated way of coming up with ideas. Even if the pace is to actually fall, it is likely that there will be a higher quality idea developing, it just may mean there are prolonged periods of doing nothing in-between my times of idea selection.

An ideal trader state is all about ownership, expectations take away our ability to own our decisions and take self-accountability.

Accept it for what it is and springboard into the next experience.

There are no negative emotions only negative reactions to them.

Focus on enjoying your daily rituals, using them as tools to enter a state of flow.

Rituals over goals.

A ritualistic workplace.

By Joe Carey


FREE Webinar Sign Up: https://www.elitetraderworkshop.com/

Axia Futures
4 Endsleigh Street London GB WC1H 0DS
+44 20 3880 8500
https://axiafutures.com/

Social Media:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxiaFutures/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/AxiaFutures
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/Axia-Futures/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/axiafutures/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AXIAFutures/
Medium: https://medium.com/@axiafutures/

Contacts:
Demetris Mavrommatis – Co-Founder, Head of Trading
Alex Haywood – Co-Founder Head of Strategy

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/dealing-with-trading-drawdowns-using-the-right-mindset/feed/ 0
Elite Traders Price Ladder Execution Playlist https://axiafutures.com/blog/elite-traders-price-ladder-execution-playlist/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/elite-traders-price-ladder-execution-playlist/#respond Thu, 28 Oct 2021 11:30:14 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=9668 More]]>

Elite Traders Trading Execution Playlist Introduction

In this blog post, we will revisit the Axia Futures YouTube video archive and watch the Elite Trader’s price ladder execution playlist. We will specifically focus on the execution of the Elite Traders using the price ladder by providing you with the specific time, where the price ladder execution begins. Each video will be accompanied by a theme and a learning question dedicated to improving your trade management skills so you can make the most out of the order flow mastery of these traders. On the importance of high-quality questions, we have also written an article (Trading Techniques To Become More Profitable Trader) you might find helpful.

Let’s get started.

Axia Futures Elite Traders Playlist

In case you have not been aware, there is a whole list of high-quality content of Elite Traders videos that we have shared with the trading community.

demetris mavrommatis elite trader
Axia Futures Elite Traders Playlist

Click on the image above or this link to find the full list.

Axia Futures Elite Traders Price Ladder Execution

Elite Trader Trades Trump Address To The Nation After Iran Attack

Elite Trader Trades Trump Address To The Nation After Iran Attack

Price Ladder execution starts: 20:48

Theme: With the beginning of 2020 there was a dramatic escalation in tensions between the US and Iran after Trump ordered an airstrike on Jan 3rd that killed top Iranian military commander Soleimani. After this, Iran pledged to take “severe revenge” and markets started getting nervous about the prospect of a military conflict between the two nations. Oil and Gold surged on geopolitical risks after the US strike while equities and risk-assets sold off. The markets were nervously awaiting Iran’s response although there was hope for a diplomatic solution and an avoidance of Iran’s retaliation.

Question: How would you describe the trader’s scaling strategy when the market was not moving in favor of this trader?

Elite Trader Pushing Performance Boundaries on US-China Trade Commentary

Elite Trader Pushing Performance Boundaries on US-China Trade Commentary

Price Ladder execution starts: 21:38

Theme: On Monday morning, while attending the G7 summit, Trump commented that China called the US and is willing to restart negotiations with the aim of achieving a trade deal. This was a surprisingly positive development that should cause risk assets to rally and safe-haven assets to sell off.

As soon as those headlines hit the wires, our Elite Trader positioned himself aggressively in S&P, Gold, Yen, and Bund. Knowing how those markets were caught off guard by these comments, he expected an aggressive unwinding of the overnight moves as traders would rush to square their positions.

Question: Given the risk-on environment, what was the order/priority of the products this Elite Trader hit in order to achieve maximum return? And why?

Elite Trader Trades Gilts & GBP On Bank of England Rate Decision

Elite Trader trades Gilts & GBP On Bank of England Rate Decision

Price Ladder execution start: 15:04

Theme: As the BOE Rate Decision was released at midday UK time, the BOE said that it will “engage with regulators on how to implement negative rates”. This statement was taken by the market as a signal that the BOE is moving closer to cutting rates below zero for the first time in its history.

Although initially, markets were a bit slow to react, as the comment got wider attention, Short Sterling (UK short-end bonds) futures started catching a bid, indicating market participants started bringing forward their expectations for negative rates. Gilts (long-end bonds) followed STIRS higher while GBP started selling off.

As the comments drop, our trader starts executing by feeding a few clips in the Gilts, while also selling the Cable (GBP). As the volume in these markets picks up and as the velocity and order flow dynamics shift and become more aggressive, he adds to his positions. He buys over 300 Gilts, sells 180 Cable, and buys 360 lots in the Short Sterling. Although after a first move up in Gilts the market stalls for some time, he decides to stick with his trades and hold the majority of his size for a second leg-up. By holding on to his positions he manages to double his P&L for the day.

Question: There was a moment when the Gilt market started to stall and possibly put the trader’s position in danger. The trader held that position thanks to the correlation with another market. What was the correlated market that gave him the conviction to hold?

Thanks for reading.

Don’t forget to check out articles you might also like:

If you like our content and would like to improve your game, definitely check one of our courses that teach you all the techniques presented by AXIA traders from a market profilefootprint, or order-flow. If you are someone who likes to trade the news, we have a great central bank course. And if you are really serious about your future trading career, consider taking AXIA’s 6-Week Intensive High-Performance Trading Course.

Trade well.

JK

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/elite-traders-price-ladder-execution-playlist/feed/ 0
Your Trading Clues Taken From E-mini S&P 500 Simple Trade Idea https://axiafutures.com/blog/your-trading-clues-taken-from-e-mini-sp-500-simple-trade-idea/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/your-trading-clues-taken-from-e-mini-sp-500-simple-trade-idea/#respond Wed, 07 Apr 2021 13:52:48 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=8646 More]]>

Your Trading Clues Taken From E-mini S&P 500 Simple Trade Idea Introduction

In this article, we will focus on your trading clues taken from the e-mini S&P 500 simple trade idea. Let’s spice things up a bit and let you be the main character in this ” trading clue” collecting game so that we can write the next article together. If you have been reading my blog posts, you know I am a big proponent of trading clues (read my latest trading journey article, where I discuss the trading clue library). I guess my engineering background is the force behind that and I feel like it gives my trading a more process-oriented structure and improves my peace of mind.

So how is this article gonna be different? Instead of me talking you through what the trader in the video did, I would love to hear your thoughts on his trade. I will provide you with my main takeaways that resonated with me. Since this trade happened just recently, you will have a chance to revisit it on your own. Ok, let’s dive deep into it.

Trade Idea Introduction

This challenge will be based on the video where Junior Axia Trader Isaac looks at the execution of his long trade in the E-mini S&P 500.

E-mini S&P 500 video executed by Junior Axia Trader Isaac

Let’s start with the technical landscape that led to the trading idea.

Technical landscape of E-mini S&P 500 from the 4th of March 2021

Although the video has ±20minutes, the main idea is described in first 7 minutes of the video. So it can literally take you seven minutes to learn new ways how to look at the markets. Isaac is using his market profile and price ladder reading skills in putting this trade together. Ok, let’s get to my main takeaway.

My Main Takeaway From The Trading Idea

In my journey, I have noticed that not all trading clues should be treated equally. What I have observed over time and really resonated with are three key concepts that were present in this video:

  • energy building
  • rising vulnerability
  • new flows

If you watched the first seven minutes of the video, I really like how Isaac combined all those concepts together. First, we have been stuck in a range and could not move lower (energy building). Second, the more time we spent near the lows, the more the highs were becoming vulnerable, aka chances for us to reach our target were rising (rising vulnerability). And last, new flows. What do I mean by that? Sometimes we just have to wait for new flows to enter the market and unlock the hidden gem that is hanging up there for us. New fresh energy needs to enter the arena to force the new momentum towards our target.

So these are my trading clues, my trading takeaways that I can then take into my own trading and build strategies around them. Now it’s your turn.

The Trading Clue Challenge

Here comes the challenge:

  • check the video, or at least the first 7 minutes of the video
  • if you are interested in the price ladder execution, check the part about Isaac execution of the trade
  • go back on your trading platform and check the trade for yourself, ES from 4th of March 2021
  • write down your main trading clues takeaways
  • email them to me at jaroslav@axiafutures.com

Based on the feedback I will either write a blog post or organize a LiveStream. The key here is to improve your game by describing clues that you see and the trading community can learn from them as well. Thanks for participating.

If you like our content and would like to improve your game, definitely check one of our courses that teach you all the techniques presented by AXIA traders from a market profilefootprint, or order-flow. If you are someone who likes to trade the news, we have a great central bank course. And if you are really serious about your future trading career, consider taking AXIA’s 6-Week Intensive High-Performance Trading Course.

Thanks for reading and until next time, trade well.

JK

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/your-trading-clues-taken-from-e-mini-sp-500-simple-trade-idea/feed/ 0
Trading the Bank of England Rate Decision – September 2020 https://axiafutures.com/blog/trading-the-bank-of-england-rate-decision-september-2020/ Thu, 10 Dec 2020 22:08:14 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=8090 More]]>

In the world of proprietary trading, when it comes to trading macro news or central bank rate decisions, sometimes the news can be huge outliers and deviate massively from market expectations in which case the market participants get taken by surprise. Examples of these are an unexpected FED rate cut, a huge unexpected beat/miss in the Non-Farm Payrolls, or as we saw recently an announcement of a massively effective Covid vaccine that beats even the most optimistic expectations.

Instances like these create very high probability trades and a trader can execute with very high conviction, being confident that the market will move aggressively to price in the new “unexpected” information.

However, on other occasions, a trader is faced with news that are not such big outliers and instead are open to interpretation, as they contain clues that are more subtle and nuanced. The market will probably not move immediately and aggressively on such news and there will rather be a two-way flow. In such situations, a top macro news trader will rely on full artillery of skill-sets, from deep understanding of the macro environment and what is driving market pricing, to his ability to deeply understand order-flow dynamics of individual markets and price action shifts. Moreover, he will rely on his skills of reading correlations between markets so that he can lean on the most-sensitive-to-the-news market to execute positions in other markets.

In this article, we will explore all the above, as our top macro trader has executed across 3 markets on the September 2020 Bank of England Rate Decision, and more specifically on comments regarding the potential adoption of negative rates.

Watch The Live Trading Recording:

AXIA Elite Trader Demetris Mavrommatis trades GBP and Gilts on BOE Rate Decision

Background: Recent Bank of England speeches

In the fight against the Pandemic, we have seen central banks around the world taking unprecedented measures to provide monetary support and stimulate their economies. Interest rate cuts and the launch of massive bond-buying programs (Quantitative Easing) have been the main monetary policy tools that have been used by central banks in this crisis in order to provide financial support.

Although the Federal Reserve has cut rates to 0%, FOMC officials decided NOT to go negative, whereas the ECB and the BOJ have been implementing negative policy rates for a while now.

Bank of England’s policy rate is currently at 0.1%. In most recent times, the BOE has been in a dilemma with regards to the use of negative rates. Although some members have expressed their potential support for them, the majority of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) officials, including the BOE governor Bailey, have been communicating that although they are in BOE’s policy toolbox, this is not the right time to be implementing them.

Demetris Mavrommatis trading the Bank of England Rate Decision (BOE Current Stance)
Recent speeches from BOE members show that negative rates are not imminent

As per recent BOE commentary, market participants had pushed back their expectations for negative rates. Pricing of future rates can be derived by looking at the Short-Sterling futures (UK short-term interest rates)

12pm Bank of England Rate Decision (Screendump)

At midday UK time on 17 September 2020, the BOE released their latest Rate Decision. This was accompanied with BOE minutes, which show additional commentary on the deliberations of the MPC.

Demetris Mavrommatis trading the Bank of England Rate Decision (12pm BOE Announcement)
BOE Rate Decision and Minutes released in a piecemeal fashion at 12pm UK time

Not much was expected from BOE at this meeting and market participants viewed this meeting as a “non-event”. It was expected that rates and QE were going to be left unchanged and that commentary would be very similar to the previous meeting, as further action would be contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and potential Brexit developments.

The headlines from the Rate decision were hitting the wires in a piecemeal fashion (i.e one after the other) due recent changes in the release, unlike previous times where all headlines would hit at exactly 12.00pm.

At around 12.03pm there were some comments on negative rates. More specifically the BOE said that the committee had “discussed the effectiveness of negative rates in particular” and also that the BOE was “briefed on how a negative bank rate could be implemented effectively, should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it”. A few minutes later it was also reported that the “BOE will engage with regulators on how to implement negative rates”.

Demetris Mavrommatis trading the Bank of England Rate Decision (Key market moving headlines)
Key market-moving headlines in relation to the implementation of Negative Rates

Elite trader reaction to the news

Unlike other instances where we have seen our Elite trader smash big clips and enter the market aggressively with big size, in this case he started scaling in with smaller clips (10 lots) in the Gilts, and only when he saw the volume picking up and the order flow and price action changing significantly he attacked with bigger clips.

As he explained, the reason for this different reaction, was because he felt that comment itself was not a huge surprise, as the BOE had already mentioned before that they had been discussing negative rates. It was a comment that was open to interpretation, and he started trying to gauge from the price action how the market would take it. 

The fact that they have been discussing them and they have been talking to regulators on how to implement them, on one hand could be interpreted as a technicality and that they just want to make sure that the processes are there in case the negative rates are ever needed. On the other hand, the market participants might interpret this statement as a signal, that the fact they have been briefed by regulators means that they are really close in implementing them. For more clarity, he kept looking at his newswires to see if additional headlines could paint a clearer picture on BOE’s intentions. 

Demetris Mavrommatis trading the Bank of England Rate Decision (Bloomberg article)
Bloomberg Article summarising Bank of England communication on Negative rates

As these headlines are being picked up by other wires and start getting retweeted and rehashed, the market starts processing these as a potential signal that the BOE is getting ready and closer to implement them. The change in order flow dynamics and velocity of the market, and the volume spike across the three correlated markets he is looking at (GBP, Gilts and Short-Sterling), gives our trader confidence to attack more aggressively and build bigger positions in these markets.

He lifts over 300 Gilts while selling around 180 Cable (GBP). Although he doesn’t really trade short-end products like the Short-Sterling, and he would rather prefer to use them as a barometer to help him with execute in the Gilt and the Cable (GBP), in this case he does lift a couple of clips in the Short-Sterling, purely because the comment is specifically related to rates, which means Short Sterling should be the most sensitive market and the one that reacts the most in relative terms.

Demetris Mavrommatis trading the Bank of England Rate Decision (ladders)
AXIA Elite trader Demetris buying Gilts and Short-Sterling while selling GBP, as negative rates commentary gains more traction

Trading the second leg of the move

As the markets react further to the news, he starts printing a decent PnL. Now we are 5 minutes in after the rates headlines hit and at this stage most of the other traders on the floor have reduced significantly their positions and most have even covered their positions completely as they managed to capitalise on this first leg of the move. 

This is the point where his true skill-set comes in, in his ability to feel the market by observing the order flow and the correlations, and if he feels there is a valid reason to stick with the trade then he won’t cover it until it does what he expects it to do. And this is why he outperformed significantly on this event.

As the Short Sterling starts extending its highs again, and as GBP stays offered, he keeps feeding his Gilt position, feeling that there is a strong chance the Gilt will follow and have a second leg up. As he explains, these markets are normally very correlated during the first few minutes after a BOE rate decision, and as the flattening of the curve subsides after the strong reaction of the short-end, he expects the long-end (Gilts) to also go bid and catch up to this second leg in the Short Sterling. A few minutes later, the Gilt does catch a bid and extends its highs significantly, and our elite trader manages to double his daily PnL on this move.

Demetris Mavrommatis trading the Bank of England Rate Decision (charts)
Pricing of negative rates is being brought forward after the BOE release and this is reflected in the Short-Sterling futures. Longer-end bonds (10Y Gilts) track the Short-Sterling higher while GBP falls on the news

Edge Spectrum on Macro News Events

An edge is cultivated and refined over many years and a trader should always strive to keep improving his edge if he has the ambition to become a top performer. As Alex, our co-founder, explains at the end of the stream, when it comes to trading fundamental and global macro news events, a trader will be faced with many different kinds of news events that produce different market reactions. 

Demetris Mavrommatis trading the Bank of England Rate Decision (key takeaways)
Lessons and key takeaways from the Elite Trader Execution Stream

On one end of this spectrum, you will have the really simple news, that most traders will make money on, as these are very simple to interpret and the market reacts in a very straightforward way, in the sense that it does what the trader expects it to do instantaneously. So an average trader with basic understanding, being in front of his desk and reacting relatively quickly should be able to profit out of them.

And on the other end of the spectrum, you have the very subtle, nuanced news that requires a much higher level of skill for a trader to be able to execute as efficiently as possible and profit out of them. In these instances, the market will make it a lot more difficult for a trader to make money. It will test him, it will squeeze him, it will make him doubt his conviction and trading idea. 

Demetris Mavrommatis trading the Bank of England Rate Decision (edge spectrum)
Macro News Events Edge Spectrum

In these situations, it won’t be enough for a trader to just understand the macro landscape and the news environment and what drives market pricing. A top trader will have to search for clues in the price action, in the order flow dynamics, in the key correlations between other markets. In other words, it will be a much harder process to profit in these scenarios, and a trader who wishes to maximise his PnL will need to have a full artillery of skill-sets.

Our elite trader is renowned for trading global macro & central bank events and his execution skills on such situations are impeccable. To review more in-depth examples of this execution style, have a look at our Price Ladder and Order Flow Strategies training.

Moreover to gain extensive insight into how our senior and elite traders prepare for trading key central bank events, take a look at the Central Bank Trading Strategies Course

FREE Webinar Sign Up: https://www.elitetraderworkshop.com/

Axia Futures
4 Endsleigh Street London GB WC1H 0DS
+44 20 3880 8500
https://axiafutures.com/

Social Media:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxiaFutures/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/AxiaFutures
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/Axia-Futures/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/axiafutures/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AXIAFutures/
Medium: https://medium.com/@axiafutures/

Contacts:
Demetris Mavrommatis – Co-Founder, Head of Trading
Alex Haywood – Co-Founder Head of Strategy

]]>
London Trading Floor Stories: The Profile Engineer https://axiafutures.com/blog/trading-floor-london/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/trading-floor-london/#respond Fri, 14 Aug 2020 14:57:01 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=7183 More]]> Trading Floor Stories

This series of trading floor stories will explore some of the core practices, routines, and trading frameworks of our AXIA Elite Traders. In the first installment, we explore one of our most diligent practitioners of what it means to journal trade ideas and why he does it. He is the Profile Engineer.

Decades before Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert’s witty and wise observation that “human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they’re finished,” The Profile Engineer is the antithesis to this idea as his core belief framework subscribes to the notion that he needs to constantly evolve with the shifting landscape of market opportunity whilst carving his own unique personality on the trading floor.

The Profile Engineer has been slowly fermenting his process over the past 6 years on the London trading floor into a brew that has refined itself into a classic vintage that will be recognised for all its delicate but purposeful acts of trading and its process re-engineering of a world-class nature. A constant grafter at his art and yes his trading is his art and his purpose is to constantly seek the masterpiece in his trading which he knows is a constant journey and piecemeal adaptive process.

Perhaps his greatest strength, that separates him on the trading floor, is his constant pursuit of understanding how we learn, how we make decisions, and how we evolve during the cycles of understanding ourselves emotionally whilst grasping the patterns of the market.

One of his other powerful traits which dovetails perfectly into the trader development process is his “depth of field” and seeing the long game like a Conifer tree forgoes competing for immediate gain and gratification against the angiosperms for sunlight territory. The Conifer slowly sacrifices short term gains whilst assembling its natural assets before it hits an explosive growth rate later down its development cycle and then becomes the true outstanding feature of the natural world. What all our new traders can learn from the Profile Engineer is that whatever you practising today is sewing the fruits for tomorrow.

Sequoia Tree starts slowly assembling its assets before explosive late growth much
like traders should see the growth cycle of their personal careers

Developing Outside The Trading Floor Environment

A prolific reader on wide-ranging subjects which he sees helps him grasping reality and expanding his mental models to encapsulate the wide spectrum of market opportunities with high levels of understanding but more importantly to generate a more creative approach to his market understanding. He is a pioneer in the team among many of his trading floor colleagues in leading the way to how we record patterns and most importantly how we recognise them in their reoccurrence in real-time and how to structure plays by leveraging his ideas when the auctioning nature of the market coincides with his technical plan. He is a large proponent of the Market profile and using the price ladder as confirmation to initiate his technical zones of conviction. A momentum seeker by profession but is equally adept at aggressively positioning in counter-trend flows after extreme exhaustion events. He has built himself up to trading significant size in Bunds, Emini-SP, and Crude Oil. His daily swings can be anything between 6 – 7 figures. This is just the start for him as given his style and approach in the market he has the ability to significantly leverage numbers of 10 X his current performance without having an influence in the liquidity dynamics of the markets he trades. 

The Profile Engineer is religious of a fundamentalist nature in terms of having a rigorous routine and process in recording his observations of the patterns of the market by way of having confidence in logging his observations routinely. 

Other Trading Floor Articles That May Interest You

Intellectual architecture and expanding one’s latticeworks of mental models

In a famous speech in the 1990s, Charlie Munger summed up this approach to practical wisdom: “Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ‘em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form. You’ve got to have models in your head. And you’ve got to array your experience both vicarious and direct on this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life. You’ve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.”

The scope of one’s interest and genuine infatuation to LEARN is one of the driving factors in expanding one’s mental models of digesting “reality” so as to tackle the markets with a more skillful and imaginative manner. This helps to a great degree to manufacturing true EDGE. The shape and variety of one’s intellectual framework I believe is the determining factor to constantly harvesting profitable ideas from the market. This is cultivated by one’s wide array of interests. The diversity in his interest, away from the trading floor, and curiosity spectrum being it from learning to surf, weekly yoga practice, learning new gastronomic dishes feeds his intellectual hunger for that sort of cross-disciplinary curiosity and self-directed learning which in turn expands his creative edge in the market.

From the book Great mental models they succinctly explain the importance of expanding one’s latticework of mental models for the benefit of helping and profession or skill pursuit you may embark upon.

Latticework is an excellent way to conceptualize mental models because it demonstrates the reality and value of interconnecting knowledge. The world does not isolate itself into discrete disciplines. We only break it down that way because it makes it easier to study it. But once we learn something, we need to put it back into the complex system in which it occurs. We need to see where it connects to other bits of knowledge, to build our understanding of the whole. This is the value of putting the knowledge contained in mental models into a latticework. It reduces the blind spots that limit our view of not only the immediate problem but the second and subsequent order effects of our potential solutions. Without a latticework of the Great Models, our decisions become harder, slower, and less creative. But by using a mental models approach, we can complement our specializations by being curious about how the rest of the world works. A quick glance at the Nobel Prize winners list shows that many of them, obviously extreme specialists in something, had multidisciplinary interests that supported their achievements.

AXIA Trading Floor London https://axiafutures.com/live-streaming/

Distillation Process Away From The Trading Floor

One of his core learning beliefs is how one cements the learning from the past trading week once away from the trading floor. In the heat of the battle and after each trading day when our emotional and energetic reservoirs are depleted it becomes challenging to fully harness our personal learning from the market. Although his end of day routine includes Evernoting (Digital Journaling) the daily patterns of the market and his subjective observation on his self-aware state it is not until the weekend where he can fully observe and deeply investigate his performance from the past week. A key point to observe here is his end of day realtime journaling is critical as it records his direct real-time self-evaluation of the day, it is just more difficult to fully digest the learnings from day until a more productive mental state is engaged when one can fully develop and implement one’s market lessons. Only when one is full of renewed energy and has stepped outside the cauldron of market battle can one in a relaxed setting start using our critical faculties of evaluation to isolate our key areas of market performance and update our pattern observations and cement ones learning and key takeaways from the past trading week. One’s comprehension skills are amplified in this relaxed but focused setting. This is what he calls the distillation process where one’s neurological faculties are firing a different tune, a tune that is absorbent of key information that then gets transformed into trading knowledge. The distillation process is where our conscious observation and questioning application we engage on the weekends results in the alchemical transformation into our unconscious pattern recognition states of awareness when we essentially start training our instinctive recall skills. This is where deep synthesis takes place and enhances our understanding of deep market mechanics and pattern dynamics.

Many traders on any professional trading floor can be deeply committed to their weekly routine of keeping a journal both of market patterns observed and their self-talk analysis but without the weekend distillation process then much of the hard work done during the week is wasted. Without distillation, we do not reprogram our market mind and are at the mercy of repeating the same degenerative bad habits from the weeks gone by and one’s market growth and improvement are thwarted. It’s like building an F1 sports vehicle with all the modern technology by all the best engineers who have developed a world-class vehicle but without the tires, the vehicle becomes of no use. Journaling during the week without the weekend critical analysis is in essence not putting the tires on your vehicle and thus you remain stationary in your learning no matter the quality of your daily journaling.

The London Trading Floor Live Stream

If you are unable to join a trading floor but wish to get the next best thing, check out our daily live streams from our London Trading Floor or learn to trade with a range of our Trader ​Training courses on offer. The Axia Futures 8 Week Career Programme can be attended in-house or virtually from home as an online trading course. These are the most comprehensive training programmes in the world of proprietary trading​ and are based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development​.

Axia Futures
4 Endsleigh Street London GB WC1H 0DS
+44 20 3880 8500
https://axiafutures.com/

Social Media:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AXIAFutures/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/AxiaFutures
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/Axia-Futures/

Contacts:
Demetris Mavrommatis – Co-Founder, Head of Trading
Alex Haywood – Co-Founder Head of Strategy

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/trading-floor-london/feed/ 0
Why is Day Trading Futures Not Simple? Part III https://axiafutures.com/blog/why-is-day-trading-futures-not-simple-part-iii/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/why-is-day-trading-futures-not-simple-part-iii/#respond Wed, 08 Jul 2020 19:28:52 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=6681 More]]> Psychology. As an academic pursuit, futures trading can seem relatively easy, as discussed in Part I of this series, learning how to predict a move from A to B based on a pattern can be replicated and more consistently spotted. But, learning how to trade that A to B move is changed completely when money is put into the equation – your mind set changes from: “I think this will happen, I’ve seen it numerous times, let’s see” to “this needs to happen, I don’t want to lose, maybe this wont work, maybe I should take the profit now.” The difference is feedback: when money is on the line, the result, particularly if a loss, is more easily internalised and remembered. Whereas when it is academic feedback is less and so the result of the ‘trade’ is only remembered when it achieves its target. This is an example of availability heuristic – significant results, in terms of their impact on you, are more easily recalled and the average result is not, therefore the perceived value of a trade is skewed. Everyone remembers the one time a trade went suddenly wrong but find it hard to recall the numerous trades that wen to target.

Why do Trading Losses Matter More?

According to research that underpins Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky) losses are felt twice as much as gains – this explains why they are more easily recalled and also why traders seek to mitigate loss before looking for profit. But why is this the case? Evolution. Humans have evolved to avoid dangerous situations – your natural instinct to prepare to fight, flea or freeze at the first sign of danger (a bush rustling) has been extremely helpful in not getting eaten by a tiger. But, when put into a trading situation, this instinct causes the same reaction to potential loss of money – a desire to get out of the situation. So, even when onside on a trade, the fear of losing can overwhelm the pre-planned assessment and likelihood of a trade working and cause snatching of profit (fleaing). More dangerously, when offside, the immediacy of a potential loss causes a fight instinct that can result in averaging and greater loss.

3 Ways to Manage Trading Psychology

  1. Consider Trades in terms of ticks rather than P+L by doing this the link between price movement and loss is broken. If a trade is expected move 20 ticks to target and after 10, it pulls back 5 ticks before going to target this is much easier to handle. Instead, attaching a monetary value and thinking “I was $1000 up and now I’m only $500” brings in fear that you could have ‘lost’ and could lose more so should get out of the situation. This is particularly important when increasing size – a trade in ticks is exactly the same in its movement whether trading a 1 lot, 10 lot or 100 lot.
  2. Categorise your trades. Being able to compared like-for-like trades not only creates a better understanding of the trade itself, but perhaps, more importantly, gives you the opportunity to objectively look at how the trade performs over time. Accept that trades will never have a 100% success rate so taking a loss is inevitable, not something to be feared. Whereas exiting a trade early can damage the overall performance by reducing average profit on winning trades
  3. Debrief your trade not just from a technical point of view but from a psychological perspective too. The aim here is to recognise common traits and situations that allow you to be influenced by subjectivity instead of your plan. If, for example, when onside, your desire to snatch profit often gets you out of a trade, then a trigger can be created: as soon as that felling is felt it should trigger a planned response to review the plan of the trade. This can be reinforced by writing down the trade plan and category before hand so the potential psychological pitfalls are recongised and accepting before entering.

Learning about what impacts your trading psychology, is just as important as learning to trade different strategies – every mistake or success has both a technical and psychological cause. Remember losing money is not the same as being eaten by a tiger.

Richard

P.S. Click here to read Part 4

Learn More About Trading Futures

To learn to trade futures and develop your career as an elite trader then check out our range of Trader ​Training courses on offer. Our flagship 8 Week Career Programme can be attended live on our London Trading Floor or virutally from home as an online trading couse. It is the most comprehensive training programme in the proprietary​ ​futures​ ​trading industry and is based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development​.

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/why-is-day-trading-futures-not-simple-part-iii/feed/ 0
Trading The Iran Attack: Trump’s Nation Address https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-the-iran-attack-demetris-mavrommatis/ https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-the-iran-attack-demetris-mavrommatis/#respond Fri, 19 Jun 2020 08:36:00 +0000 https://axiafutures.com/blog/?p=5786 More]]>

In this video, Adam goes through the execution of our AXIA Elite Trader on Tuesday 7th of January 2020 and Wednesday 8th of January 2020. 

This was a record breaking day for our Elite Trader, which eclipsed one of his prior best days just a month ago, and a huge personal milestone in daily PnL.

US-Iran Crisis: Buildup To Trade The Iran Attack

With the beginning of 2020 there was a dramatic escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, after Trump ordered an airstrike on Jan 3rd that killed top Iranian military commander Soleimani. After this, Iran pledged to take “severe revenge” and markets started getting nervous on the prospect of a military conflict between the two nations. 

Oil and Gold surged on geopolitical risks after the US strike while equities and risk-assets sold off. The markets were nervously awaiting for Iran’s response although there was the hope for a diplomatic solution and an avoidance of Iran’s retaliation.

AXIA Elite Trader trades Trump Address to the Nation after Iran Attack – YouTube

At around 11pm London on Tuesday 7th January, various twitter sources started reporting that Iran started firing missiles at Iraqi bases that house US soldiers. With both US and European cash markets closed, futures were slow to react. However as more sources started confirming the attack and more specifically when Iran Revolutionary Guard confirmed that they were hitting US forces, markets were on the move. Oil, Gold and US bonds started rallying sharply while S&P futures started selling off aggressively. 

Demetris Mavrommatis Trades Iran Attack CME Open
Twitter sources reporting Iran attack on US military bases

Rapid Trade Execution Using Order Flow

The elite trader started buying oil and gold very aggressively (around 200 lots in each), buying T-Notes (300+ lots) and selling S&P (200+ lots). Executing with his usual trading style he kept managing the trades in these 4 markets by adding and scaling out as he saw fit. As the news kept getting more and more traction so was the market reaction. The moves from 11:00 to 11:40 PM were quite large across oil, gold, bonds and S&P and he managed to capitalise big on them.

Demetris Mavrommatis Trades Iran Attack - No Casualties
Reports of no US casualties and Iran stating conclusion of proportionate measures

After the initial reaction to the attacks, the market was fearing the worst (potentially a full-blown war between US and Iran) and thus the very big risk off move. However, soon it was reported that there were no US casualties and Iranian Foreign minister Zarif said that IRAN CONCLUDED PROPORTIONATE MEASURES, NOT SEEKING WAR. In addition to this, Trump tweeted saying “All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!”. (See previous examples of how our Elite Trader executed on Tweets that moved the market when he traded the Trump tweet aggressively on China Phase one deal)

All the above feeding into markets made participants realise that the situation seemed like it was contained and that the US probably wouldn’t have to retaliate back. This caused the V-shape reversal in all markets with Gold, Oil and US bonds selling off and Spoo rallying retracing the original move. Our Elite Trader managed to reverse his initial risk-off positions and sold Gold and Oil while buying SnP to add to his PnL. By 3am most markets had retraced most of the moves. 

Demetris Mavrommatis Trades Iran Attack - Charts
Markets retracing the initial risk-off moves as situation seems to be contained

On the morning of Wednesday 8th of January, after this massively volatile overnight session, the European session was a lot quieter. Equity markets kept drifting higher while safe haven assets (Bunds/Gold) and Oil kept drifting lower as markets were relieved on the limited response by Iran and the fact that there were no casualties. Trump was scheduled to address the nation at around 4pm London time and it was clear that this would be the catalyst for the next move. 

The market price action was indicating that Trump was probably going to sound harsh on Iran but refrain from announcing further conflict or retaliation after the latest attacks. If that was the case we would expect probably another leg of risk-on (but possibly short-lived as this was now priced in). If on the other hand he chose to escalate tensions further, then we would expect risk-off to hit the markets again.

Trump started his speech by saying that IRAN APPEARS TO BE STANDING DOWN. This was the first hint that he acknowledged that the Iran attack was limited and that hinted that he would not choose not to retaliate. Our Elite trader instantly sells 90 lots in Oil and then sells 80 lots in Gold and buys 280 S&Ps. 

Demetris Mavrommatis AXIA Elite Trader Trades Iran Attack (ladders)
AXIA Elite Trader buying S&P while selling Oil and Gold futures as Trump states that he is seeking a diplomatic solution and peace with Iran

As Trump continued talking he struck a very de-escalating tone by saying that he was seeking a diplomatic solution and peace with Iran. This was the best that the market would hope for and as a result risk assets rallied and safe haven assets and oil sold off to completely unprice any war premium. The elite trader played for a final risk-on move by adding to his positions and scaled his positions out as he started seeing signs of exhaustion in the moves.

Learn The Same Trader Skills From “Trading The Iran Attack”

Our elite trader is renowned for trading global macro events and his execution skills on such events are second to none. A few months prior to this day, over the continuous theme of the US-China trade disputes, he executed aggressively multiple big day trading opportunities

To review more examples in-depth of this AXIA Elite trader execution style, have a look at our Price Ladder and Order Flow Strategies training. Moreover, to learn to trade this type of trading and understand execution over geopolitical and central bank events, the central banks training covers in-depth central bank trading strategies.

For information on how to develop your career as a high performing futures trader then check out our range of Trader ​Training courses. Our flagship 8 Week Career Programme can be attended live on our London Trading Floor or virtually from home as an online trading course. These are the most comprehensive training programmes in the world of proprietary​ ​futures​ ​trading industry and are based​ ​upon years of successful in-house skill​s ​development​.

Axia Futures
4 Endsleigh Street London GB WC1H 0DS
+44 20 3880 8500
https://axiafutures.com/

Social Media:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AXIAFutures/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/AxiaFutures
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/Axia-Futures/

Contacts:
Demetris Mavrommatis – Co-Founder, Head of Trading
Alex Haywood – Co-Founder Head of Strategy

]]>
https://axiafutures.com/blog/how-to-trade-the-iran-attack-demetris-mavrommatis/feed/ 0